A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
