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On the exact date Donald Trump received a tailor-made "award for peace" from his recent friend, FIFA president "Gianni" Infantino, his government published an similarly ostentatious national security strategy. This relatively brief paper is saturated with the essence of Trump and Trumpism. It opens with the typically modest assertion that the president has brought back "our nation – and the world – back from the edge of disaster and ruin."

Even though the document largely codifies the ongoing actions and rhetoric of Trump and his team, it must be heeded as a grave warning for the world, and for the European continent specifically.

A Strategy of Interference and Civilizational Fear

The document espouses an assertive form of foreign-policy meddling where the US clearly sets the goal of "fostering European strength." Its rhetoric seems taken straight from speeches by the Hungarian Prime Minister during the much-discussed refugee crisis of 2015-16: "Our desire is for Europe to remain European, to regain its cultural self-assurance." Even more ominously, the document states that Europe's "economic decline is overshadowed by the real and more stark possibility of civilizational erasure."

The whole section dedicated to Europe is steeped in generations of European right-wing ideology and rhetoric. The EU and its migration policies are held responsible for "transforming the continent and creating conflict, censorship of free expression and stifling of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and erosion of national identities and self-belief." Per the document, if "current trajectories continue, the continent will be unrecognisable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economic power and militaries powerful enough to be reliable allies." In fact, the Trump administration asserts that "within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become predominantly non-European."

"U.S. foreign policy should continue to champion genuine democracy, free speech, and proud celebrations of European nations’ individual character and past."

Foundational Theories of the Right-Wing

These arguments carry strong echoes of two concepts regarded as core for contemporary far-right circles. The first is Oswald Spengler's "Der Untergang des Abendlandes," whose thesis on the inevitable fall of civilizations was used by the German far right to criticise the "perversion" and "enfeeblement" of the democratic Weimar Republic. The second is "The Great Replacement," published in 2011 by French novelist Renaud Camus, who transformed long-existing "indigenous" fears into a more explicit conspiracy theory, alleging European elites of using immigration to substitute rebellious "native" populations and bring in a more submissive and dependent electorate.

It is the nationalist fever dream contained in both ideas that gives the Trump administration the right, if not the duty, to intervene in European affairs, the document suggests. And it is clear where it identifies its allies: "The United States urges its ideological partners in Europe to advance this resurgence of national spirit, and the increasing clout of nationalist European parties in fact gives cause for significant hope."

The Objective: "Restore European Greatness"

In other words, the US contends that it is key to its national security to "Restore European strength," and that the European far right is the only movement that can achieve this. Therefore, its "overarching strategy for Europe" focuses on "fostering resistance to Europe’s present path within European nations" – understood as the far right – and "strengthening the healthy nations of central, eastern, and southern Europe" – specifically "aligned countries that want to restore their past glory" – such as Hungary and Italy.

While the document remains unclear on methods, it is obvious that a key aim is to pressure Europe to adopt a sweeping policy on freedom of speech, more aligned with the US model – particularly regarding far-right speech – and not limited to social media. Another is to normalise relations with Russia; or, as the document calls it, to "restore strategic stability with Russia." Although the country is not explicitly called a future ally, the Trump administration evidently does not regard Russia as an adversary either.

An Ideological Blueprint: The Monroe Doctrine

In a wider context, the national security strategy draws its ideas less from the idealized US of the 1950s and more from the 1823 policy of 1823. Articulated by President James Monroe, this warned European powers not to interfere in the "Americas," which he proclaimed to be the US’s sphere of interest. The Trump administration’s policy document vows to "implement a Trump addition" to the Monroe Doctrine, which entails the US "recruiting" countries worldwide that wish to help safeguard US national interests.

This is necessarily new – recall JD Vance’s speech at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, where the vice-president unleashed an ideological attack on Europe’s democratic model. But maybe now that it is published in an formal document, European leaders will at last realize that the situation is grave. And if the document is too lengthy or imprecise for them, it can be summarised in clear and concise terms: the current US government believes that its national security is most enhanced by the destruction of liberal democracy in Europe. In other words, the US is not only an reluctant ally; it is a willing adversary. It is time to respond appropriately.