Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.