Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”