Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
